The archive
Every post, in chronological order. Read the most recent useful signal first.
OpenAI and Anthropic have spent the past year defining the AI frontier. But xAI is suddenly producing top-tier models and agents, Meta is betting on openness and distribution, Google remains impossible to ignore, and Chinese labs are crowding the leaderboard.
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The Industrial Revolution had to build factories. Computing had to put machines on desks. The internet had to connect the world. AI arrived after all of that infrastructure was already waiting.
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OpenAI is now selling roughly March’s flagship-level intelligence for one-thirteenth of the token price. That could make vast amounts of previously uneconomical cognitive work worth doing.
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Short-notice compute carries a scarcity premium. The real moat may be the calendar.
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The useful question is not whether the label is perfect, but whether the compounding process has already begun.
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AI may become practically necessary in medicine before it becomes legally required. That gap is where things get interesting.
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